Matt Ryan has been struggling so far this season compared to the 2016 season. In the seven games of the 2017 season so far, he is averaging nearly half the touchdowns while throwing double the interceptions. His yards are also down by an average of 46 per game so far while having the same amount of attempts. This season could be the first time since 2008 that he throws for less than 20 touchdowns.
This weekend he has to play against a division rival, the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are ranked 6th in defensive passing yards, 12th in passing touchdowns allowed, 2nd in sacks, but 27th in interceptions. So, statistically it shouldn't be a favorable matchup. Looking at the 2015, 2016, and 2017 (so far) seasons though, Matt Ryan could be okay.
Since the 2015 season, Matt Ryan plays, slightly, better against the Panthers than he does other teams. Comparing 4 games vs the Panthers with 35 games against everyone else; Matt Ryan averages 2 less attempts per game but gets an extra 40 yards from them with a 8% higher Completion Percentage (75% vs Panthers, 67% vs everyone else). He averages 0.0071 more touchdowns per game(!!), and averages 0.5 interceptions per game compared to 0.77 vs everyone else.
The odd thing about the interceptions per game is that he's 3x more likely to throw a pick6 against them than he is in an average game. Against the rest of the league he's averaging 0.0857 interceptions returned for a touchdown but against the Panthers he is averaging 0.25. Granted, I know that since this based off 4 games that just means he threw one pick 6, no big deal. Looking back farther though, it still holds up. From the 2010 season and on, Matt Ryan averages 0.0857 per game against everyone besides the Panthers (105 games). Against the Panthers (in 14 games), he averages 0.3571 per game.
I don't think that he's going to have a major uptick in completion percentage but I do think we'll see his first 300 yard performance of the season since week one. I'm also going to say he'll throw 3 touchdowns, hopefully two go to Julio (fantasy team) but one may be to the wrong team though ;).